Altcoin Downturn and Options Data Point to Bitcoin's Downward Path

Altcoin markets have seen steeper declines compared to Bitcoin. While short-term trends have weakened, a full-blown downward phase has not yet begun. According to Glassnode's September 16 report 'Breakdown into Thin Support,' the median decline of the top 100 cryptocurrencies was about 2 percentage points greater than Bitcoin's as of the last close before the Senate vote. The proportion of coins trading above their 20-day moving average dropped from 56% to 19% within a single session. However, long-term trends remain intact: most top 100 cryptos are still trading above their 50-day moving average, with few testing recent lows. In May 2026, the share of coins above the 50-day MA fell by half within a week; this week's drop was more limited.

Options markets showed defensive positioning ahead of the Senate vote. Before the vote, investors paid higher premiums for calls than puts at the same distance below spot price (measured by one-week 25 delta skew). The skew dipped significantly below zero an hour before the vote, indicating put options were cheaper than call options. After results were announced, the skew rose above zero and prices climbed. One-week implied volatility spiked during the vote period but quickly fell without a shift in defensive positions. If the skew returns below zero ahead of the Fed decision, it could signal renewed bullish bets.

Current options positioning also limits upside potential. The largest open options at the September 25, 2026 expiry are concentrated around $72,000, where most options expire worthless. This suggests the weight of positions is below current prices. Key strike prices include $70,000 for both calls and puts, with heavy call concentration above spot at $85,000 and a secondary barrier at $90,000, overlapping with earlier resistance levels.

Order book data shows thin support near current price. About two-thirds of buy orders within 20% of the current price are placed 1-10% below market, up from half at year start. The deeper buy wall (10-20% below) has weakened significantly compared to previous years. Immediate support appears around $68,000, with a gap between $68,000 and $61,000 where no clear defense exists. Short-term holding cost at $71,300 falls within the current buy order zone; if price rebounds here, it could signal a normal correction.

Bitcoin's price range has been shaky but not yet broken. After a week of negative news, prices are currently trading about 1% below the true market average of $76,700. The ability to hold this level supports bullish arguments, though new momentum is weak. On-chain funds and ETF inflows have stalled; stablecoin supply has plateaued. Major financial players remain in loss zones without buying activity.

Alts are turning bearish while options markets pay for downside protection. If Bitcoin closes two consecutive days above $76,700 with rising volume, it could signal a recovery. A second close below that level would confirm a breakdown, with next support at the short-term holding cost of $71,300 and then the on-chain bottom range of $62,000–$65,000.