Altcoin Market Cap Rises 10% but Altseason Threshold Unmet

The altcoin market capitalization has broken through a two-year downward trendline, though it is too early to consider this as the start of a full-fledged 'altseason.' Excluding the top 10 coins, the altcoin market size increased by over 10% this week. AMBCrypto reported on April 19 that the market cap has surpassed the trendline that had acted as support for nearly 1000 days. The rebound remains limited in scope. While the market grew around top assets, broader market expansion needs further confirmation through additional metrics.

CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index stood at 46 on April 19, up from 42 the previous day and 37 a week earlier, but still below the 75 threshold for an 'altseason.' CoinMarketCap defines altseason as when 75% or more of the top 100 coins outperform Bitcoin (BTC) over the past 90 days. Current figures show some altcoin rebounds but not yet widespread outperformance against BTC.

Bitcoin dominance also remains a key factor. AMBCrypto noted that Bitcoin dominance is showing a descending triangle pattern on weekly charts, though no actual breakdown has been confirmed. The chart pattern alone does not confirm capital shifting to altcoins. Macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on altcoin gains: the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate range by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% on April 16, citing persistently high inflation. While rising rates affect risk asset liquidity and sentiment broadly, no direct causal link was established between the rate hike and altcoin market cap growth in this report.

Regulatory uncertainty persists as well. The CLARITY Act, a U.S. virtual asset market structure bill, failed to secure 60 votes for committee passage on April 15 with a 49-50 vote. This was not the final rejection of the bill but a procedural hurdle. CoinShares identified the stalled CLARITY Act and the Fed's hawkish stance as key burdens for the crypto market on April 18, noting that altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) may be more affected by regulatory environment and stablecoin payment infrastructure changes.

CoinShares also forecasted Bitcoin is unlikely to break above $80,000 (approximately KRW 110.96 million) unless inflation expectations improve significantly or monetary policy shifts occur. This outlook assumes that altcoin market rebounds are not yet fully decoupled from broader macro trends and Bitcoin's movement. Current evidence points to a rebound in the altcoin market, but until the Altcoin Season Index surpasses 75 and Bitcoin dominance shows confirmed decline, it remains important to distinguish between individual asset gains and broad-based altseason.