Bitcoin 2026 Year-End $100K Target Has 25% Probability, $150K at 2%

Bitcoin (BTC) has a 25% probability of reaching $100,000 (approximately KRW 138.7 billion) by the end of 2026, according to Polymarket. The same platform estimates a 2% chance of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 (approximately KRW 280 million). Bitcoin reached a high of $81,377 (approximately KRW 112.88 billion) on September 18.

MyRidMarkets' prediction market indicated an 84% probability that Bitcoin would reach $84,000 (approximately KRW 116.51 billion) before falling to $55,000 (approximately KRW 76.29 billion). The related contract trading volume was $242,000 (approximately KRW 335.55 billion).

Polymarket's prediction market showed Bitcoin had an 80% probability of reaching $85,000 (approximately KRW 117.89 billion), a 59% chance of hitting $90,000 (approximately KRW 124.83 billion), a 39% probability for $95,000 (approximately KRW 131.77 billion), and a 25% likelihood of reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026. The related contract trading volume exceeded $67 million (approximately KRW 92.9 billion).

Calx estimated a 25% probability that Bitcoin would surpass $100,000 before 2027, with a 12% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000. These figures reflect the likelihood of prices touching these levels at least once within the specified period, not year-end closing or average prices. Polymarket contracts use Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute high as the price reference point for determining whether targets are met, meaning the probability metrics represent market pricing rather than definitive forecasts.