Bitcoin Bear Market May End in Early October? Cycle Analysis Suggests

Bitcoin (BTC) may see the end of its bear market as early as early October, according to a recent analysis. The calculation is based on applying past market cycles to the current one, though it does not confirm the exact bottom point.

Killa (@KillaXBT), a Bitcoin-focused quant trader, stated on X on 17th that historical bear markets typically lasted about 364 days from peak to trough. Applying this timeframe to the current cycle suggests Bitcoin could form its low around early October, with approximately 20 days remaining until the market bottom.

The analysis focuses on time cycles rather than price levels. It assumes that past patterns of high and low points occurring at regular intervals will apply to the current market. However, MarketVector noted that shifts in market structure and capital flows could prevent this timeline from repeating exactly.

Blockbits reported that Killa previously predicted a peak for this bull run in May 2025. With over 200,000 followers on X, Killa reportedly bet against Bitcoin when it reached $74,688 (approximately 123.2 million won) in mid-April before switching to a bullish position on June 5th.

MarketVector's July report analyzed three previous bear markets and found that their final lows formed between 364-406 days after the peak. Using October 6, 2025 as the reference point, this would place potential low points in early to mid-November 2026 — a broader range than Killa's earlier October prediction.

While some had previously suggested an October low based on Bitcoin's four-year cycle theory, MarketVector emphasized that applying past periods to current markets cannot definitively determine the exact bottom. On July 17th, Bitcoin traded around $75,700 (approximately 13.7 million won), down 0.82% over 24 hours and 3.84% over the past week.

Whether the bear market has truly ended will be confirmed through future price movements and market indicators.