Bitcoin Below $76,700 as Market Indicators Show Mixed Signals

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading just under Glassnode's actual market average price of $76,700 (approximately KRW 1.6 billion), showing conflicting bullish and bearish signals. The short-term holder average purchase price of $71,300 (approximately KRW 98.6 million) has been established as a bottom support line.

PANews reported that Bitcoin had surpassed the actual market average price, but Glassnode's latest weekly report released on September 16 stated that Bitcoin remained below this benchmark. PANews cited next resistance levels at approximately $80,000 (KRW 1.1 billion) for corporate treasury holdings and $85,000 (KRW 1.17 billion) for ETF holdings.

Glassnode's actual market average price is an on-chain metric reflecting the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin traded in the secondary market, calculated using investor capitalization and active supply ratio. It serves as a benchmark line showing the average purchase price of market participants. Glassnode explained that Bitcoin has been trading below this actual market average price.

The recent lower price range has overlapped with this level, and trading remained below the benchmark even after the U.S. Senate's virtual asset market structure bill vote was postponed on September 15. Glassnode noted that if two consecutive daily closes occur below the actual market average price, a price range breakout could be confirmed. Conversely, two consecutive closing above $76,700 might indicate the reestablishment of the previous price range.

The short-term holder average purchase price was set at approximately $71,300, an on-chain benchmark showing the average acquisition cost for recently entered investors and used alongside the actual market average price to assess price support. Market supply indicators did not point solely to bullish signals: Bitcoin's realized market cap recorded 27 consecutive days of inflow until September 14, but showed outflow for the first time in 28 days on September 15.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $334 million (KRW 46.19 billion) in net outflows from September 8 to 14. The timing of this outflow coincided with the period below the actual market average price, potentially adding short-term supply pressure.

Glassnode reported in its September 16 report that listed companies have accumulated approximately 5,900 BTC over the past three months, with an average purchase price for corporate treasuries at around $80,000 (KRW 1.1 billion). Bitcoin has tested this average purchase price twice since January, including a recent pullback on September 3 that confirmed resistance beyond just an average cost level.

Options market data also showed upper pressure: Glassnode noted that the largest call option strike was at $85,000 and selling pressure built up near $90,000 (KRW 1.24 billion). The main resistance levels in both spot and options markets overlap between $83,000 and $86,000 (KRW 1.14 to KRW 1.18 billion).

Even if Bitcoin recovers above the actual market average price, it must sequentially overcome corporate treasury and ETF holdings' average purchase prices as well as options market strike levels. Glassnode previously noted that Bitcoin's on-chain structure supporting a rebound weakened when trading below $76,700, with analysis suggesting that continued closing below this level could confirm a downward breakout.

The key benchmarks currently monitored by Glassnode are whether Bitcoin recovers above $76,700 or maintains support at the $71,300 line. Whether two consecutive closes above $76,700 occur or if downward pressure extends to $71,300 will determine the next price movement.