Bitcoin Call Options Surpass Put Demand for First Time in a Year

Bitcoin (BTC) call option demand has surpassed put option demand for the first time in a year, signaling a shift toward bullish sentiment in the options market. However, with Bitcoin futures open interest exceeding $50 billion and key strike prices below spot price levels, market signals alone cannot definitively predict price direction.

As of 11 p.m. KST on August 14, Bitcoin traded at $78,278 (approximately ₩15.12 million), down about $48,000 from its October 2023 high of around $126,000. According to Bitcoin.com, call options accounted for 61.39% of open interest at 305,530.06 BTC, compared to put options' 38.61% (192,126.29 BTC). Call option trading volume also outpaced puts at 18,892.23 BTC versus 12,497.93 BTC over 24 hours.

CoinGlass reported Bitcoin futures open interest reached $52.64 billion (approximately ₩71 trillion) on August 14, with Binance holding 21.1% at $11.1 billion. CME held $8.45 billion, Gate.io $4.94 billion, and Bybit $4.83 billion. CoinGlass's public dashboard showed slightly lower figures of $51.49 billion (approximately ₩69 trillion), likely due to different measurement points.

December 25 options show concentrated positions around $80,000 strike price with nominal value of approximately $710 million and $100,000 strike at about $530 million. For the September 25 expiry, call options at $70,000 had the largest open interest at 19,567 BTC, while $85,000 calls stood at 9,492.8 BTC and puts at $70,000 reached 9,426.8 BTC. The maximum loss price for this expiry was shown as $72,000 (approximately ₩9.67 million), which is the price where total payout to option buyers would be minimized.

StackFund's Chief Operating Officer Matthew Dibb noted short-term traders view inflation data and interest rate hikes as near-term risks. Charles Schwab Virtual Asset Research Head Jim Ferraioli stated market participants are beginning to see upside potential rather than focusing on negative factors, indicating both optimism in options markets and caution around macroeconomic variables.

Bitcoin.com previously explained that option demand does not definitively determine price direction, and this time too, call option demand and premiums alone cannot confirm a spot price increase. While the skew indicates recovering risk appetite, it does not guarantee price appreciation, especially given the large futures open interest where opposite price movements could trigger leveraged liquidations.