Bitcoin Could Break $82,000 on Fed Rate Hold Scenario

Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially break above $82,000 (approximately KRW 111.52 million), according to Ali Charts, a virtual asset analyst, who cited the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate hold as a catalyst. However, this analysis is conditional on the Fed maintaining rates and investors readjusting their positions.

Ali Charts noted in a BlockBeats post on April 16 that federal funds futures reflect about a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed. He stated, "The possibility exists that the Fed will hold rates," adding this is his personal outlook rather than a market consensus.

The analyst explained that if the Fed holds rates, investors may adjust their positions and inject buying pressure into risk assets, potentially allowing Bitcoin to rebound around $75,000 (approximately KRW 12 million) and surpass $82,000. However, historical trends have been inconsistent: Bitcoin has risen only twice out of the last 14 Fed rate decisions.

Additionally, legislative progress on virtual asset market structure legislation in the U.S. Senate has stalled, failing to secure the necessary 60 votes for advancement. Ali Charts warned this could burden President Donald Trump's virtual asset policy goals and potentially increase economic strain through further rate hikes ahead of midterm elections.