Bitcoin Could Reach $100K Next Year? VanEck Analyst Reveals Factors

VanEck Digital Assets Research Head Matthew Sigel said government debt burdens are supporting Bitcoin (BTC) assets, forecasting the cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 by next year.

Sigel made the prediction during a Friday appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box Asia. This week, Bitcoin faced pressure from three directions and traded near $77,400.

Bitcoin held its floor despite a volatile policy week, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. On Friday, Bitcoin traded at $77,403, up 1.26% for the day and over 20% higher over the past month.

The asset remains about 39% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded on October 6, 2025.

Bitcoin's price movement: Source: BeInCrypto Markets. Follow us on X for real-time updates.

This monthly gain occurred during an unfavorable period for risk assets. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, marking the first increase since 2023. The Bank of Japan also raised its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, the highest level since 1995.

The crypto market also lost its biggest legislative achievement this week when the Senate rejected a cloture motion for the Clarity Act by a 49-50 vote on Tuesday, leaving market structure legislation in limbo. Bitcoin prices held firm despite Federal Reserve and Senate decisions, though on-chain metrics weakened.

Sigel's reasoning behind his $100,000 Bitcoin forecast

Sigel explained that governments with excessive debt are the main driver of Bitcoin strength. He noted volatility has halved compared to four years ago, a shift from previous cycles.

He also pointed out traders are paying higher premiums for put options over call options. The U.S. Treasury's bond buyback program triggered strong short-covering, he said. This, he added, "reaffirms that if Bitcoin strengthens, future market trends will be much more favorable." Sigel stated conversations with institutional clients and sovereign funds confirm all are buying.

This $100,000 forecast is not new. Sigel presented this figure in April and mentioned it again in August. He also set a $500,000 target for 2029 and previously shared long-term projections of reaching $1 million within years.

At Friday's price level, Bitcoin would need an additional 29% rise to hit $100,000. To reach the 2029 $500,000 target requires about 546% more growth, and hitting $1 million would require approximately 1,192% further increase.