Bitcoin Cycle Low Already Passed at $58,000

Bitcoin may have already formed its cycle low around $58,000, according to a recent analysis. On July 18 (local time), blockchain media CoinTelegraph reported that James Check, founder and chief analyst of CheckOnChain, diagnosed the market as having digested significant selling pressure through two rounds of sell-offs.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 on October 12, 2025, and was trading around $77,400 at the time of writing, down approximately 39% from its peak. Some traders are looking to a four-year cycle pattern suggesting another low point could emerge in October 2026. Benjamin Cowen also cited the July cycle duration and U.S. midterm election schedule as factors indicating a potential bottom in Q4.

Check viewed Bitcoin's drop to around $60,000 in February this year as a 'sell-off due to price pain,' where investors who bought near the peak took significant losses. He noted that between June and July at around $58,000-$59,000, sideways movement led to doubts about recovery from 'time pain sell-offs.' He stated the difference between $58,000, $59,000, and $60,000 is minimal, with the six-month period being the actual divide.

Check cautioned against relying solely on four-year cycles for market judgment, emphasizing that previous cycle dates alone cannot explain why investors sell. He stressed examining acquisition costs, unrealized and realized losses, holding profitability, and accumulation/distribution by experienced investors. Calendars should only be used as supplementary indicators after market exhaustion or sell-off signals are confirmed.

He explained that approximately $30 billion in Bitcoin acquisition costs were concentrated between $58,000 and $70,000, with around 4 million BTC shifting from loss to profit zones during the rebound. Long-term holders currently control about 80% of Bitcoin's total supply, suggesting they are likely waiting for higher prices rather than selling after a short-term bounce.

Grayscale Research Chief Jack Pan also recently weighed in on the possibility that $58,000 at the end of June could have been the bottom. He noted this downturn did not generate as much despair as previous Bitcoin bear markets but was less overheated during the bull market, potentially limiting the downside. He also pointed out that price stability despite negative news is generally a sign of oversold conditions.

However, on-chain metrics show mixed signals. HODL Wave data showed only a modest increase in 1-7 day holding volume from 1.97% to 2.35% between July 1 and 5, which Willy Woo interpreted as an unusually weak buying response. Conversely, CryptoQuant data revealed short-term holders have maintained partial profitability for 30 consecutive days—the longest since 2026—a pattern observed during previous Bitcoin recovery phases.