Bitcoin Hits All-Time High After U.S. Election Results, BIS Doesn't Forecast

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached an all-time high following the confirmation of U.S. election results, mirroring a similar surge in U.S. stocks. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) did not provide any price levels, growth rates, or future price forecasts for Bitcoin in its December 2024 Quarterly Review report published on December 10, 2024. The report analyzed financial markets from September 7 to December 2, 2024, highlighting investor optimism driven by expectations of a soft economic landing and the resolution of U.S. election uncertainty.

U.S. stocks rose further after the November 6 election results, hitting an all-time high, while Bitcoin followed a similar trajectory during the same period. The report did not include specific price levels, growth rates, or trading volumes for Bitcoin at that time. Risk assets strengthened alongside cautious sentiment in bond markets. Despite two interest rate cuts by U.S. policymakers amid continued economic strength, Treasury yields rose due to dollar strength and concerns over increased government debt supply.

The BIS cited widening term premiums, expanding cross-country bond spreads, and further declines in swap spreads as examples of how fiscal and geopolitical risks were reflected in financial markets. Investors demanded higher compensation to absorb increasing treasury issuance. Stock and corporate bond markets continued to strengthen, with U.S. stocks setting new highs post-election and corporate bond spreads narrowing to multi-year lows in some segments.

Risk asset gains partially offset the tightening effect of rising Treasury yields and dollar strength on financial conditions. Emerging market financial conditions deteriorated due to a combination of dollar strength, currency weakness, falling equity prices, and rising bond yields. China's economic stimulus measures positively impacted emerging markets with strong trade ties to China, though BIS noted these effects were short-lived.

The report also included analysis on central bank policy responses to demand-pull inflation being stronger than for supply-driven inflation. A special feature on large language models (LLMs) analyzed over 60,000 news articles from 2021 to 2023 to assess factors influencing U.S. stock movements, including macroeconomic and monetary policy news alongside market sentiment.

Bitcoin's post-election price movement was only mentioned in the financial markets overview section of the report, with no separate analysis on stablecoins, decentralized finance, exchanges, or blockchain infrastructure included. The financial market review period ended on December 2, 2024.