Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR Surpasses 1 as Market Shifts to Neutral

Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holder SOPR, an indicator measuring realized profits of long-term holders, has surpassed the break-even point of 1. Analysts suggest the market has moved from a weak phase to a neutral one, but it's too early to confirm a full bull run. CW8900 CryptoQuant analyst stated on May 15 that Bitcoin's long-term holder SOPR rose above 1, as reported by PANews.

SOPR compares the purchase price and selling price of Bitcoin when moved, showing realized profits or losses for holders. A reading of 1 indicates break-even. Long-term holder SOPR calculates only Bitcoin held for over 155 days. CryptoQuant explains that the indicator shows movement and realized profit/loss by long-term holders. When SOPR exceeds 1, it means long-term holders are generally realizing profits as they move coins. Conversely, below 1 suggests loss-making movements.

CW8900 assessed this rise as Bitcoin breaking through its bottom and beginning an upward trend. However, this interpretation is closer to improved profit/loss structure among long-term sellers rather than price movement itself. The current long-term holder SOPR has not yet exceeded 6. CW8900 noted that in past market cycles, peaks often formed when long-term holder SOPR reached above 6. He believes the current phase does not indicate large-scale profit-taking by long-term holders and views recent movements as preparatory for a potential bull run.

CW8900 predicts the true bull phase has yet to begin, emphasizing that confirmation requires SOPR exceeding 6, indicating significant profit realization. Long-term holder Bitcoin holdings remain at historically high levels, with continued accumulation observed recently. This suggests long-term holders are prioritizing holding over selling, supporting the analysis of reduced sell pressure.

The rise above 1 shows long-term holders have moved out of loss-selling mode, but a single indicator cannot confirm price direction or market peaks. Specifically, surpassing SOPR 1 only reflects improved average realized profits for long-term holders. To judge market trends, subsequent data on how high the indicator rises and changes in holding volume must be confirmed together.

The key benchmark remains SOPR 6. Whether profit realization exceeds this level or long-term holdings continue to grow will determine future market conditions. Current confirmation is that long-term holder SOPR has recovered above 1, but the current cycle's indicator has not yet reached 6. The sustainability of an upward trend requires further on-chain data verification.