Analysis: Bitcoin May Repeat 2022 'Dead Cat Bounce' and 50% Crash Pattern

As the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed tightening after three years by raising interest rates, CoinDesk analyzed that the Bitcoin market is replicating a 'dead cat bounce' crisis pattern similar to the early stages of the 2022 downturn. In March 2022, following the first rate hike, BTC had already dropped 40% from its all-time high of $69,000 before surging 18% over 12 days, then plummeting another 50% into a prolonged bear market. Currently, BTC has fallen 40% from its all-time high of $126,000, raising concerns that a short-term rebound could be followed by a second major crash. Amid macroeconomic challenges including oil surpassing $100 and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hitting 5%, markets are pricing in an additional 75 basis points of rate hikes over the next six months. With no precedent for such single-step increases since 1955, market anxiety is rising over whether Bitcoin will fall into a prolonged bear market similar to 2022 after a short-term rebound illusion.