Bitcoin Price Falls Below $76,700 as Bullish Support Weakens

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below its actual market average price of around $76,700 (approximately KRW 143.1 million), weakening the on-chain structure that had been supporting its rebound. Over the past week, the price has dropped by about 4.6%, breaking below the lower boundary of a price range maintained since late August. Glassnode's weekly report analyzed that if Bitcoin continues to close below its actual market average price, a downward breakout could be confirmed.

The actual market average price represents the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin traded in secondary markets and is also referred to as the active investor price by Glassnode. This on-chain benchmark shows the average purchase price of market participants, and whether prices recover this level determines if recent buying pressure has moved beyond loss zones. Glassnode presented a next benchmark based on short-term holding costs at approximately $71,300 (KRW 96.97 million), which reflects the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held for about 155 days recently. The range between $62,000 and $65,000 (KRW 843.2 million to KRW 884 million) was also mentioned as a support zone.

New capital inflows have stagnated. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $334 million (KRW 45.42 billion) from September 8 to 14. Stablecoin market capitalization remained unchanged at around $301 billion (KRW 40.936 trillion), indicating that new liquidity entering the crypto market has not significantly expanded, as stablecoin supply did not increase.

Corporate treasury Bitcoin purchases have been limited. Over the past three months, corporate treasuries bought only about 5,900 BTC in net terms, and their total holdings are analyzed to be within a loss zone. Derivatives market positions have tilted downward, with the options maximum pain price estimated at around $72,000, while call options near $85,000 appear to be acting as resistance at the upper price range.

The options maximum pain price refers to the price where option buyers suffer the greatest losses at expiration. This figure does not confirm price direction but reflects expiration structure and position concentration. Glassnode emphasized that whether Bitcoin recovers its actual market average price and short-term holding cost benchmark, along with changes in ETF capital flows, will be key indicators for assessing current market structure.