Bitcoin Could Rebound to $84,000 After Falling Below $75,000

Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to rebound to $83,000-$84,000 after falling below $75,000 following the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and dot plot release, according to a forecast by Jiang Zhuoer, founder of B.TOP mining pool.

Jiang announced on a post dated 16th that the Fed would announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. KST on the 17th. Based on 30-day federal funds futures prices, he estimated a 92% probability of a 25bp rate hike, with expectations for the Fed to raise the target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. He noted that while the rate hike itself is largely reflected in the market, the dot plot released afterward would be more important.

The dot plot shows Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members' future interest rate outlooks. Jiang highlighted a potential two rate hikes by 2026 as key to watch. If further rate hikes are confirmed after this decision, the market could see short-term declines, but if the Fed's rate path is more dovish than expected, downward pressure may ease.

Jiang presented a 'sell-off then rebound' scenario as the most likely outcome following the Fed's announcement: markets dip first before recovering. He specifically noted Bitcoin could rebound from below $75,000 to $83,000-$84,000. He also identified Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, speaking at 2:30 a.m. KST as a key variable; if he signals dovish policies, Bitcoin may recover after the initial drop.

Jiang previously forecasted that Bitcoin could reach $83,000-$84,000 before correcting. This time, he outlined a sequence where Bitcoin drops following the Fed decision and dot plot release before rebounding. As the actual rate decision and dot plot release precede these events, it remains uncertain whether Jiang's projected price path will materialize.