Bitcoin Rebounds After Two Setbacks; On-Chain Data Tells a Different Story

Bitcoin (BTC) has endured two setbacks in 48 hours: a Federal Reserve interest rate hike and the failure of a Senate bill vote. The price held steady, but crucial price levels were not maintained.

Cryptocurrency on-chain data analytics platform Glassnode had set up this week's test earlier. If daily closing prices fell below the True Market Mean for the second time, it would signal a definitive shift from a simple dip to a sustained downturn. This occurred on Wednesday as the price closed below the threshold.

The news was delivered without major shock, but price levels collapsed. The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate on September 15th. The bill aimed to clarify which U.S. regulatory body would oversee digital assets, and traders had viewed it as a positive catalyst for market trends.

Bitcoin funds saw outflows of $450.33 million that day. A total of $592 million left spot Bitcoin and Ethereum products, marking the largest single-day ETF fund outflow in recent months.

The Federal Reserve then stepped in, with policymakers unanimously raising the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Of the 18 committee members, 16 projected one more rate hike this year.

Bitcoin prices rose rather than fell following the news, climbing from around $75,350 to surpass $76,100 within minutes of the announcement. At the time of writing, BTC traded near $76,297, up 0.58% over 24 hours and down 2.5% weekly.

Market participants had already priced in both outcomes, explaining minimal price movement. The real test came with daily closing prices. Bitcoin closed at $76,187 on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day below the True Market Mean of $76,700—a critical level that has served as a support since late August.

This price range represents the average purchase price for investors still holding positions. It had acted as a key support since late August, having been tested twice in August 23 and September 10 without breaking through. A single breach is merely a stumble; two consecutive breaches signal a significant trend reversal.

Funds stopped flowing into the market before the vote. The rally that formed Bitcoin's price range was driven by new capital inflows, which have now ceased. The Realized Cap—a metric summing all Bitcoin value at its last movement price—rose for 27 consecutive days until September 14th, then reversed on September 15th.

It wasn't just the vote that triggered this change. ETF demand had already begun declining from the previous week. Between September 8 and 14, $334 million flowed out of spot Bitcoin funds.

No replacement capital has emerged since then. Stablecoin supply, which fuels future rallies, has been trading sideways around $30.1 billion over the past week.

Buyers who drove the market in 2025 have also disappeared. Public companies bought approximately 5,900 BTC over the last three months but purchased 89,000 BTC in July 2025 alone—a stark contrast. Their average purchase price of around $85,000 is now above the spot price, putting them underwater and reducing their likelihood of further buying.

Meanwhile, options traders also detected similar signals. Within hours after the Senate vote results, short-term option bias shifted from bullish to bearish.

Not all experts view this week as a bearish signal. On-chain analyst Willy Woo estimates a 90% probability of a bottom forming. His assessment is based on long-term capital inflow trends, though ETF flows, stablecoins, and treasuries have recently moved in the opposite direction.

From a technical perspective, there's support for bullish arguments. Analysts generally view September as a 'quiet month' for Bitcoin, with many expecting a bottom to form in October. Until then, key price levels will determine future direction. Resistance ranges from $83,000-$86,000—a zone where long-term holders have the most concentrated holdings. Buy orders are distributed up to $68,000, while liquidity rapidly weakens below $61,000.

If daily closes remain above $76,700 for two consecutive days, the range could recover—but only with new capital support. Without it, downside targets include $71,300 and a potential floor at $62,000-$65,000.