Bitcoin Seller Risk at 7bp Amid 24-Day Sideways Range

Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving within a roughly 5.5% sideways range for more than 24 trading days, as seller risk has fallen to 7 basis points. Selling pressure has reached one of the lowest levels in the past year, but prices have not broken out of the range due to insufficient buying interest. Bitfinex Alpha reported on April 14 that approximately 840,000 Bitcoin cost bases are clustered within this range. A cost base refers to the average purchase price at which investors acquired their assets. With profit-taking slowing down, seller risk has decreased to 7bp—a metric that gauges selling pressure based on realized profits or losses. Recent figures represent one of the lowest levels in the past year, indicating that selling volume hasn't significantly increased even as prices rise. However, reduced selling pressure hasn't immediately translated into upward momentum. Bitfinex Alpha noted that Bitcoin may remain within its current trading range if new demand doesn't sufficiently enter the market.

Earlier, the publication reported on the trend of Bitcoin consolidating around this key price zone. In derivatives markets, leverage positions have accumulated across various price ranges. Approximately $1.95 billion (around 2.62 trillion won) in short position liquidation risk is concentrated near $82,000, while significant long positions are positioned between $75,000 and $76,000. This positioning means that price movement in either direction could trigger liquidations and amplify volatility. If Bitcoin surpasses around $82,000, short position liquidations could further drive prices higher; conversely, if it falls toward the $75,000–$76,000 range, long position liquidations could increase selling pressure.

Macro economic factors are also cited as limiting breakout potential from the sideways range. Rising energy costs, increasing real interest rates, and weakening consumer confidence have complicated market conditions. Bitfinex Alpha analyzes that Bitcoin's next direction will depend on signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, real interest rates, and energy price trends. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 15–16, where monetary policy decisions could influence short-term volatility in conjunction with leveraged positions trapped within the current range.