Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Profit Buffer Narrows to 7% Amid Price Convergence

Bitcoin (BTC) short-term holders' profit buffer has narrowed to approximately 7% relative to their average cost. The gap between price and cost has narrowed, bringing recent buyers' profits and losses closer to equilibrium. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. of CryptoQuant noted on September 17 that Bitcoin's trading price stood at around $76,200 (approximately ₩143.9 million), while the average cost for short-term holders (holding less than six months) was approximately $71,300 (around ₩97.68 million). This indicates Bitcoin's price is roughly 7% above the average cost of short-term holders.

Short-term holders represent recent market entrants whose profit and loss dynamics reflect changing sentiment. The metric tracks whether recent buyers are realizing profits or losses, with a ratio below 1 indicating recent buyers are incurring losses. Over the past week, the price-to-average-cost gap has narrowed from 10% to 7%. While Bitcoin's price remains above average cost, the profit buffer for short-term holders has decreased.

CryptoQuant also reported that the average value of short-term holder exchange inflow profit/loss metrics fell by approximately 96% between September 10 and 17, nearing zero. This suggests a near-equal balance between Bitcoin moved to exchanges to realize gains versus those sold at a loss. However, exchange inflows do not immediately signal selling pressure.

Short-term holders are considered sensitive to price changes, with potential for increased sell-offs below purchase prices and profit-taking above them. Earlier, when the short-term holder profit ratio rose from 26.1% to 74.9%, it signaled a shift from loss-based selling to profit realization as prices recovered. Now, with the narrowing gap, the same group's profit-loss structure is approaching breakeven.

Adler Jr. warned that if Bitcoin falls below the short-term holder average cost of $71,300 and the exchange inflow profit/loss metric turns negative, all short-term holders could enter a loss zone. This would shift selling pressure from profit-taking to loss mitigation. The key market benchmark remains the $71,300 average cost level, with Bitcoin's ability to hold this price and whether the exchange inflow metric turns negative determining future short-term holder profit dynamics.