Bitcoin Tests $75,000 Support as Derivatives Positions Rebuild

Bitcoin has broken below its box range bottom, with derivatives markets quickly rebuilding positions. However, spot buying pressure has yet to strengthen significantly, making the confirmation of the lower support a key variable. According to a September 16 Bitfinex report titled 'BTC Needs Sustained Buying to Break Above its Floor,' Bitcoin fell 3.5% from its September 15 high to low. During this process, global open interest decreased by $1.7 billion. On September 16 morning, major exchanges reported Bitcoin futures open interest at $52.15 billion, slightly exceeding the previous day's $52.1 billion level before the decline.

On September 15, total cryptocurrency market long liquidations reached approximately $571 million, while short liquidations totaled about $100 million—marking the largest long liquidation volume since August 22. Bitcoin and Ethereum accounted for roughly $190 million each. When Bitcoin first tested $77,100 on September 10, total liquidations reached $562 million, with 86% being long positions. This indicates relatively resilient long exposure in perpetual futures despite repeated attempts to break below the short-term box range bottom.

Long positions have not collapsed easily, and market flow data shows that as prices gradually decline, long exposure continues to increase. Although Bitcoin is forming lower highs and lows, funding rates remain positive but not overheated, aligning with recovering open interest. This differs from panic liquidations seen in trend exhaustion periods when funding rates turn negative and open interest drops sharply.

While some indicators have not normalized—Coinbase's spot discount rate widened from 0.03% on Monday to 0.08% at the September 16 opening, reflecting weaker spot demand compared to other exchanges—the market still shows passive capital inflow absorbing ETF sell pressure. However, aggressive buying pressure strong enough to push Bitcoin above the $77,000 box range remains insufficient.

Options markets have maintained downside protection demand. Open interest for options expiring September 18 increased by 22% this week, with call options up 30% and put options up 12%. The put-to-call ratio dropped from 0.82 to 0.70. For the September 25 quarterly expiry, all maturity ranges shifted toward puts, with risk reversals moving from -0.39 to -1.51 for September, -0.95 to -2.35 for October, and -0.65 to -2.08 for December. This suggests that short-term options positions may remain unhedged ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Longer-dated options continue to show strong downside protection demand as market participants maintain positions in anticipation of volatility after events. Leverage remains relatively balanced, with limited additional liquidation risk following large long liquidations in the previous session. However, the market is largely priced for potential interest rate hikes, and post-Clarity Act vote failure, reactions to Fed guidance and U.S. Treasury yields could act as a larger upward catalyst.

Bitcoin's Tuesday close pushed the True Market Min below $76,500—the average acquisition price of all active holders. This means the average market participant has entered a loss zone. If Bitcoin breaks above or below the box range, it often reverts to the previous range after temporary breakouts or expands in the breakout direction. Should declines continue, historically significant acquisition price zones become potential support levels.

Major corporate holder Strategy's average Bitcoin acquisition cost is also under pressure at $75,412 for its 845,050 BTC holdings. Tuesday's low formed below this level but the close was 0.4% above it. Strategy has not bought Bitcoin for two consecutive weeks, instead allocating approximately $139.3 million in STRC preferred shares at around $98 per share (par value $100). The break-even point for corporate treasury holders is near $85,000, while U.S. ETFs are near $86,000. Neither group is likely to act as natural buyers around $76,000.

The first key support zone lies between $74,985 and $75,412—where Tuesday's low and Strategy's average acquisition price overlap. This includes the previously confirmed $75,000–$76,000 long liquidation cluster that has already seen over $500 million in liquidations. Sustained testing below this zone would signal a bearish trend. ETF capital flows must stabilize, and open interest for the September 18 expiry $75,000 put options should not increase meaningfully.

The next support candidate is at $73,500, with collective indicators suggesting $73,190 as a potential target. This level represents the acquisition price of 3–6 month holders and the first retracement goal. At this zone, short-term holder exchange inflows should remain below 20,000 BTC daily, the rate of supply reduction in profit zones should slow compared to last week's decline (less than 371,000 BTC per $1,000 drop), and altcoin median decline should be less than 1.4x Bitcoin's fall.

$71,300 is the short-term holder realization price, overlapping with a concentrated trading volume zone between $70,000 and $71,500. The acquisition distribution near this level approaches approximately 350,000 BTC. At this zone, Coinbase's spot discount rate should not widen but narrow, and low-price buying in perpetual futures markets should moderate.

The final support range lies between $62,500 and $71,000—the Q1 box range—with a potential bottom at $62,000. Below this level, the $60,000–$63,000 long liquidation cluster is also present. If short-term holder realization prices break below this zone, it signals a return to a bearish market structure where losses exceed half of circulating supply.