Bitcoin Tests $76,000 Support Level...Possible Drop to $71,000

Bitcoin (BTC) may be forming a rounded top pattern on the 4-hour chart. If the support level at $76,000-$76,300 breaks, technical calculations suggest a target range of $79,000-$71,000. CoinJournal noted in its analysis that Bitcoin rebounded from around $63,000 in mid-August before losing upward momentum near $80,000-$81,500. The price has since been gradually declining from recent highs, creating a rounded top shape on the chart.

A rounded top pattern is confirmed when the neckline support breaks. This analysis identifies the neckline as $76,000-$76,300. If the 4-hour candle closes below this range, the pattern becomes more likely to confirm. The distance between the peak and neckline is estimated at about $5,000-$5,300, which when subtracted from $76,000 gives the target range of $79,000-$71,000.

Technical indicators remain neutral. Bitcoin's 4-hour RSI is around 54.5, and price action has been near the 20-, 50-, and 100-period moving averages. Alternative scenarios were also presented: recovery above $79,500-$80,000 could weaken the bearish rounded top scenario, while breaking above $81,500 would invalidate the pattern.

CoinJournal cited CryptoQuant's data showing that Bitcoin futures demand increased in September (positive), while spot demand was negative. Overall demand also remained negative, suggesting recent buying pressure may be more concentrated in leveraged futures positions than spot accumulation. Futures contracts allow holding positions without expiration dates and can amplify price movements due to leverage.

CryptoQuant's report from September 11 stated Bitcoin needs to surpass $81,700 to confirm a new bull market—a separate medium-term confirmation level distinct from the short-term support line under consideration. CryptoQuant Research Chief Julio Moreno also identified $77,100-$82,000 as key on-chain resistance levels. For downside scenarios, support zones were noted at $70,000 and $62,000-$65,000.

Previous analysis had suggested a potential correction to $70,000-$72,000 after testing $76,000. Both past and current chart analyses present conditions rather than definitive price forecasts, with the maintenance of the $76,000 support level being critical for short-term direction amid conflicting spot and futures demand trends.