Cathie Wood Says SpaceX IPO at $175B Is Undervalued

Cathie Wood claims a single Starship launch could generate $1 billion in revenue, suggesting SpaceX's $175 billion IPO will ultimately seem inexpensive.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood linked this figure to Elon Musk's target of 10,000 annual flights by 2030. Her post followed new data on Starlink's revenue per unit of launch capacity.

Wood calls the SpaceX IPO a deep value buying opportunity. The calculation starts with Starlink, where ARK analysts estimate $19 million annually per terabit-per-second (Tbps) of network capacity. A single Starship can carry approximately 61 Tbps, meaning full-load launches would add about $1 billion in annual recurring revenue from Starlink instead of one-time launch fees.

Multiplied by 10,000 annual flights, Starship alone could generate $1 trillion in revenue. Wood argues investors buying shares at $17.5 billion will later view this as deep value.

This assumes all flights carry Starlink capacity. However, Musk has framed the 10,000-flight target based on commercial air transport without linking it to revenue from Starlink.

Early investors haven't seen significant gains yet: SPCX priced at $135 on June 1st and opened at $161. The stock has traded below its IPO price for weeks since.

Starlink revenue per Tbps is already declining: $21 million in 2023, $23 million in 2024, and $19 million projected for 2025. Analysts say this decrease is expected as capacity increases.

Flight frequency remains a challenge. Falcon 9 completed 165 flights last year, while Starship has only flown twice since its June listing—both suborbital missions that saw V3 satellites re-enter and burn up after about 20 minutes in July.

The next mission will attempt Earth orbit for the first time, carrying 26 operational V3 units. This flight is expected to be Starship's first commercial revenue-generating launch.

Wood isn't SpaceX's most optimistic investor; Dan Helde forecasts SpaceX reaching a $100 billion valuation due to falling launch costs. ARK continues to increase its position.