Clarity Act Bill's Chances of Passing by End of 2026 Drop to 18%

The U.S. Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) has a predicted 18% chance of being passed into law by the end of 2026, according to prediction market Polymarket. Polymarket states that the contract will be settled as 'yes' if the bill passes both houses of Congress and receives presidential signature before December 31, 2026. The current market probability shows an 82% chance the legislation will not become law.

The U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold a procedural vote on Thursday morning Eastern Time to begin deliberations on the bill.