CoinShares: Bitcoin Won't Reach $80K This Year

CoinShares, a UK-based cryptocurrency asset manager, forecasts that Bitcoin (BTC) will not break through the $80,000 price mark this year. The firm cites delayed Federal Reserve policy and ongoing delays in the U.S. crypto market regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act, as key factors.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,040, approximately 2% below that level. Meanwhile, VanEck anticipates Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within a year, creating a test of competing macroeconomic outlooks.

CoinShares attributes its $80,000 ceiling for BTC to the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first increase since 2023. The central bank's updated projections excluded further easing until 2027.

CoinShares Research Chief James Butterfill explained in a Friday update that without positive inflation indicators or shifts in policy expectations, Bitcoin is unlikely to clearly surpass $80,000. He linked this to rising energy prices fueling inflation, reducing the Fed's incentive to pivot toward easing.

Butterfill noted Bitcoin has already secured legal status, making it relatively insulated from regulatory delays compared to Ethereum and altcoins, which rely on stablecoin payment infrastructure operating across their networks.

VanEck's Matthew Sigel told CNBC that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 next year, arguing government debt burden supports the price. CoinShares views such bond market pressures as a 'tail risk' rather than a base case scenario, suggesting both Bitcoin and gold could rise if strong liquidity measures are implemented.

Short-term data shows opposing trends. According to Glassnode, this week's Bitcoin closed below its true market average, which reflects the on-chain average cost paid by holders.

BeInCrypto reported that the CLARITY Act was rejected 49-50 in the Senate on September 15, causing Circle stock to drop 11%. CoinShares expects a revised bill to be submitted early next year. Until inflation stabilizes, the ceiling for Bitcoin's current price will be determined by the Fed rather than Washington.