Elon Musk Says AI Could Double US Growth Rate to 4%

Elon Musk has stated that artificial intelligence (AI) could nearly double the US economic growth rate next year, lifting it from approximately 2% to about 4%.

This projection is considerably higher than official forecasts. Federal Reserve policymakers announced in a September 16 report that they expect the 2027 growth rate to be 2.4%, according to their latest projections.

Musk's 4% forecast surpasses both the Fed's recent growth data and expectations. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, compared to 2.1% in the first quarter.

Federal Reserve officials currently estimate this year's growth at 2.3% and next year's at 2.4%, with long-term economic potential estimated at 2.0%. A 4% growth rate would represent the fastest expansion since the late 1990s tech boom.

To date, AI's most visible impact on the economy has been in expenditures rather than output, as semiconductor, data center, and power plant infrastructure absorbs significant corporate budgets. This trend has influenced which AI-related stocks have gained investor interest this year.

Musk's outlook comes amid efforts to slow AI development speed in two major cities. California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on Thursday promoting the adoption of AI kill switches—devices that allow immediate model shutdowns—and requiring major AI companies to permit independent audits within research labs. A group of experts must propose stronger safety regulations within two months.

In Washington, Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton warned Congress on Wednesday that time is running out, following a closed-door briefing with lawmakers. Crypto news outlet CoinGecko reported last week that Congress has already entrusted AI safety management to corporate executives.