ETH/BTC Ratio Below 0.03078 Could Trigger 10% Drop, Analysts Say

Analysis suggests Ethereum (ETH)’s relative value against Bitcoin (BTC) could see an additional 10% drop if the ETH/BTC ratio closes below 0.03078 for the day. Conversely, if ETH/BTC surpasses 0.03344 BTC again, the bearish scenario may be invalidated. CoinJournal reported on September 16 that Ethereum was trading around 0.03167 BTC against Bitcoin.

The ETH/BTC chart shows two peaks near 0.03344 BTC, with a neckline at 0.03078 BTC drawn between them. A double top pattern forms when similar price levels create two highs before breaking the neckline; if the daily close falls below this level, the pattern becomes valid. CoinJournal noted that a target for a potential decline would be around 0.0283 BTC—a roughly 10% drop from current levels—but stressed this is an analytical projection based on technical patterns, not a confirmed price forecast.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from above 70 to near 50, indicating weakening bullish momentum that supported Ethereum’s recovery in August and September. However, if Ethereum holds above the 20-day moving average at approximately 0.03162 BTC, a rebound could delay the bearish scenario. The key technical levels remain 0.03078 BTC for downside support and 0.03344 BTC for upside resistance.

The analysis aligns with previous reporting on Ethereum testing its psychological and technical threshold at 0.03 BTC against Bitcoin. Market context includes the U.S. Senate’s failed vote on H.R.3633, a digital asset market structure bill concerning SEC and CFTC jurisdiction and registration requirements. The bill was rejected by a 49-50 vote in a procedural step to begin debate, not final passage. Following the vote, Bitcoin dropped nearly 4% to $75,900, while crypto-related stocks like Coinbase ($COIN) and Circle also declined.