Grayscale Judges Bitcoin's Bear Market Bottom at $58,000

Grayscale has stated that it judges the recent bear market low for Bitcoin (BTC) to be at $58,000 (approximately KRW 79.46 million), confirming its client asset allocation criteria have been met. Zach Pandl, Grayscale Research Chief, said during a New York interview at the Avalanche Summit on June 17 that "the assessment that $58,000 in late June was the bottom of this bear market phase remains unchanged." Details were reported by The Block.

Grayscale applies three criteria to its Bitcoin investment judgment: long-term structural trends, position within the market cycle, and macroeconomic environment. Pandl explained that digital asset adoption continues while the investment logic of digital scarcity is maintained. He assessed that the bear market phase has already passed from a market cycle perspective, and the macroeconomic environment also met Grayscale's investment criteria.

Pandl stated "all boxes can now be checked" and that they are sending clear signals to clients. This 'signal' does not guarantee Bitcoin price increases but indicates that Grayscale's asset allocation criteria have been satisfied. Bitcoin was trading above $76,000 (approximately KRW 14.12 million) on June 17 morning with a 0.8% daily gain, though still 39% below the all-time high of approximately $126,000 (KRW 172.62 million). Thus, Grayscale's bear market bottom assessment and recovery to previous highs should be viewed separately.

Grayscale's three criteria align with previously disclosed Bitcoin price judgment variables emphasizing structural adoption trends, market cycles, and macroeconomic environment. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also stated that Bitcoin has likely passed its cycle low, forecasting an upward trend until the next halving in about two years. However, neither statement confirms a specific price path.

Grayscale does not view Grayscale Zcash (ZEC) as a direct competitor to Bitcoin, explaining that while Bitcoin prioritizes transparency and verifiability, Zcash sacrifices some verifiability for privacy. Pandl noted "privacy layers are needed in digital currencies, which is missing from Bitcoin," citing different blockchain designs based on user demand. Zcash was described as an asset focused on protecting transaction and financial information.

Grayscale has offered Zcash investment products for approximately nine years. The company also cited AI development as a potential driver of privacy demand, noting that as AI capabilities grow, interest in personal and financial data protection may increase.