'If It Falls, It Should Rise'…Frustrated Retail Investors in Samsung and SK Hynix

Securities firms have advised against additional purchases of domestic semiconductor leaders Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as the sector is expected to remain in a range-bound movement with limited upside for memory prices and ongoing macroeconomic concerns like interest rate hikes.

BNK Investment Securities analyst Lee Min-hee noted on the 16th that recurring supply-demand mismatches have historically driven price fluctuations, but current uncertainties in the macro environment and memory pricing limits are reducing demand elasticity. While semiconductor stocks have gradually rebounded since July due to valuation support, major shareholder returns expectations, and strong AI server shipments, she warned that rising interest rates and memory cost ceilings will cap upward movement.

Lee downgraded Samsung Electronics' investment recommendation from 'Buy' to 'Hold' and maintained SK Hynix's at 'Hold,' effectively advising against further buying. Both stocks have been trading in a box range since last month, with no fundamental issues but macroeconomic factors like renewed Middle East tensions, oil price increases, and interest rate concerns holding back gains.

As of 2:20 p.m. on the day of reporting, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rose 1.61% and 2.84% respectively from the previous day. Samsung trades between 230,000–274,500 won, while SK Hynix has fluctuated around 1,650,000–1,850,000 won since early last month.

Over the past month, individual investors sold approximately 6.5 trillion won worth of SK Hynix, ranking first among all sold stocks. Samsung Electronics saw about 1.5481 trillion won in net sales during the same period. Foreign investors also sold SK Hynix for around 10.953 trillion won and Samsung Electronics for approximately 4.6895 trillion won. Institutions followed suit, selling SK Hynix by 4.443 trillion won and Samsung Electronics by 2.2891 trillion won.

Despite the box-range trading, retail investors in online forums expressed frustration: 'When it falls, there should be buying pressure at lower prices, but it's stuck near the bottom of the range,' and 'It's a mystery why it doesn't rise with such strong fundamentals.' Some called for additional shareholder returns.

However, analysts point to next year's projected memory chip supply shortages as evidence that current valuations offer attractive investment potential. Intel CEO Lip Bultan, speaking at the AI Infrastructure Summit 2026 in Santa Clara, California, warned of worsening memory bottlenecks, stating it is difficult to bear costs where memory accounts for 70-80% of total expenses.

Daeshin Securities analyst Ryu Hyung-geun noted that some clients are requesting contracts extending beyond five years due to rising demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), with one client even specifying over 40 billion GB in 2028. He concluded that semiconductor stocks currently offer a favorable risk-reward balance.