Jason Huang Expands Bitcoin Investment Strategy to Include Macro and Commodities

Jason Huang, NDV founding partner, has broadened his investment research from a Bitcoin-centric focus to encompass global macroeconomics and commodities such as gold and oil. He explained that ETF inflows, institutional capital, stablecoin payment adoption, and AI research tools have transformed investment decision-making and capital management strategies.

During an interview with Ublock123 featuring Tiger Brokers' manager Manlin, Huang discussed Bitcoin-related assets, GBTC, commodities, strategy, ETFs, stablecoins, and AI applications. He noted shifting from a buy-and-hold approach in early investments to evaluating both buying and selling decisions after founding NDV.

Huang cited differing asset cycles and Bitcoin's growing size as reasons for expanding into commodities, noting that achieving past multiple returns now requires longer timeframes. While acknowledging market-driven gains in previous profits, he emphasized the importance of assessing whether investment strategies work during unfavorable conditions rather than attributing success solely to personal skill.

Regarding GBTC, Huang stated they did not judge undervaluation based solely on price declines after FTX. Instead, they verified asset existence through third-party audits and Grayscale wallet verifications before considering the widening discount between GBTC and underlying Bitcoin.

Huang stressed distinguishing whether low prices reflect fear or hidden risks, requiring verifiable evidence beyond mere cheapness. When analyzing commodities like oil and silver, he examined relative pricing against historical trends and assessed supply-demand dynamics alongside market narratives explaining price discrepancies.

His agricultural investment experience highlighted different decision-making timelines; after anticipating oil price impacts on agriculture but exiting early based on his analysis, the market later moved as predicted. Huang described this as 'selling before dawn,' emphasizing the need to consider acceptable loss thresholds and patience periods in investment decisions.

Huang maintains a long-term positive view of Bitcoin while holding different views on related stocks, stressing that long-term asset perspectives should be separated from specific investment vehicle prices, cash holdings, and company signals. He noted Bitcoin research has shifted from supply-side to demand-side analysis as ETFs and institutional capital have increased market participation.

Stablecoins are viewed for their remittance speed, cost reduction, and 24/7 payment capabilities, though Huang cautioned that industry growth doesn't immediately translate to shareholder returns. Each company's revenue sources, profitability drivers, and current valuations require separate analysis.

Huang utilizes AI tools like Claude Code and Codex for tracking multiple assets, identifying extreme pricing, and organizing information, but emphasized human judgment remains crucial for assessing whether narratives have been priced in and understanding investor constraints around capital and time. He also noted that publicly sharing his investment rationale through podcasts and writing helps reinforce discipline but carries emotional burdens from negative feedback.