Kevin O'Leary Points to Quantum Computing as Bitcoin's $1 Million Barrier

Kevin O'Leary says Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1 million, but only if concerns about quantum computers breaking the network's cryptography are addressed.

The O'Leary Ventures chairman explained this condition during an interview with The Rollup Podcast at the Avalanche Summit in New York. He stated that uncertainty around quantum computing remains a barrier between Bitcoin and its $1 million target.

When asked directly if Bitcoin could trade at seven figures, he said it was possible but highlighted the obstacle. As of September 19, according to CoinGecko, Bitcoin traded at approximately $81,177, meaning it would need a 1,132% increase or more than a twelvefold rise to reach $1 million.

The risk he described is known as Q-Day—the point when quantum computers become powerful enough to break public-key cryptography. While such computers do not yet exist, the threat has been growing.

On-chain data platform Glassnode calculated that about 6.04 million Bitcoin—30.2% of the total supply—were already stored in wallets with exposed public keys as of May. These coins would be prime targets if quantum decryption becomes possible.

Hardware barriers are also lowering. Google Quantum AI recently suggested that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could break Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography, a significant drop from earlier estimates of millions. The timeline for Q-Day is moving closer: NIST plans to phase out vulnerable cryptography by 2030 and ban it by 2035, while Google has set its own post-quantum migration deadline at 2029.

These concerns are already influencing market behavior. O'Leary noted in February that institutional investors would not increase Bitcoin exposure above 3% until the issue is resolved. Similarly, Christopher Wood of Jefferies excluded 10% of Bitcoin from his model portfolio due to similar concerns.