Macro Index Shows Neutral Risk Asset Environment as Oil Prices Surge

International oil prices have surged sharply over the past week, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index also increasing alongside heightened market volatility. Meanwhile, U.S. money supply and Fed liquidity maintained upward trends, leaving the overall risk asset environment neutral at 53 points out of 100 as of September 18. The TokenPost PRO Macro Index averages five indicators—M2 growth, Fed net liquidity, dollar strength, market volatility, and yield curve spread—each scaled from 0 to 100.

This week, M2 and Fed liquidity supported the index while interest rates, the dollar, and volatility weighed on it. International oil prices rose significantly, with WTI up 13.6% and Brent crude surging 23.3% over the past week. These price movements could influence inflation and interest rate trajectories.

U.S. Treasury yields increased, with two-year yields rising to 4.74% from 4.63%, and ten-year yields climbing to 5.01% from 4.96%. The yield curve narrowed as the spread between ten-year and two-year notes decreased to +0.27% from +0.33%. The dollar index rose 1.2% week-on-week to 100.31, while volatility measured by VIX increased 11.8% weekly to 17.71.

On the liquidity front, Fed net liquidity grew slightly to $5.8641 trillion as of September 16, driven by a decline in Treasury General Account (TGA) balances. M2 reached $23.218 trillion as of July, up 0.4% monthly and 5.4% annually, earning the highest score of 67 among the five indicators.

Oil prices have become a new variable for risk asset investors, with WTI at $107.02 per barrel (up 13.6%) and Brent crude at $130.80 (up 23.3%). Despite these shifts, major indices like Nasdaq (+1.3% weekly) and Bitcoin (+1.2% over seven days) continued to rise.