Predictive Markets Trading Volume Surges to $43.7B in Nine Months Amid SOL and HYPE Infrastructure Links

Predictive markets saw monthly nominal trading volume rise from $450 million (approximately KRW 6.165 trillion) in September 2025 to $43.7 billion (approximately KRW 59.869 trillion) in June 2026, with Solana (SOL) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) linking through related infrastructure. CoinShares highlighted the expansion of predictive markets centered around Calamity and Polymarket in its July 16 report, noting that June's volume was influenced by the opening week of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The report did not include survey results from Family Offices or specific researcher statements. Therefore, any interpretation suggesting Family Offices prefer Solana while being cautious about Hyperliquid requires separate evidence. Hyperliquid launched its HIP-4 prediction market feature within existing exchanges on May 2, offering contracts settled as yes/no based on event outcomes. The first nine weeks of HIP-4 saw cumulative nominal trading volume reach $331.1 million (approximately KRW 453.6 billion), with weekly volume growing from under $3 million in the initial week to over $75 million by late June.

There was a significant gap between trading scale and protocol revenue: HIP-4 generated only $5,906 (approximately KRW 809 million) in protocol revenue during that period. CoinShares compared this figure to Hyperliquid's market capitalization of $15.4 billion (approximately KRW 2.198 trillion) at the time. The report noted it was difficult to conclude that increased predictive markets activity directly translated into token value, as trading volume refers to nominal contract amounts while protocol revenue reflects actual earnings.

Solana's role is more closely tied to wallet and exchange infrastructure for distributing access rather than directly operating prediction market contracts. Solana wallet Phantom supported Calamity-linked prediction markets in December 2025, later shifting its focus to the Solana-based World Markets platform on June 1. Solana's Jupiter application also launched its own prediction market 'Forecast' in June. While user activity through Solana wallets or apps accessing Calamity and Polymarket doesn't directly count as Solana revenue, CoinShares noted it could reflect network activity and protocol revenue for the Solana ecosystem.

CoinShares reported Solana's average quarterly protocol revenue for April-June 2026 at approximately $1.4 million (KRW 190 million), with SOL market capitalization at $47 billion (KRW 6.439 trillion). The report emphasized that the connection to predictive markets is more indirect, via wallet and exchange infrastructure rather than direct revenue streams. Hyperliquid integrated prediction features directly within exchanges, while Solana facilitated access through third-party applications like Phantom and Jupiter. However, Solana ecosystem partnerships can change, as seen when Phantom shifted from Calamity to World Markets.